Categories : Blog (249)

Nifty: Living on the edge

Despite unusual movements in top heavyweights like ITC, Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC Bank, Nifty ended the week with marginal changes. Though the intra week range of Nifty (136pts) was much lower than previous week's range (267pts),...

Beyond Sensex

"Though stock markets in general are meaningless and indicate nothing in terms of the health of the economy they still function as a form of hypnosis, or a kind of Pavlovian mechanism; a tool that central bankers can use to keep a population...

Dovish Draghi, Euro Euphoric

Days like Thursday make it tough to explain currency moves but also make the underlying market dynamics clear.The ECB didn't make any meaningful changes to its statement. References to the size and duration of QE programs were...

Draghi revival after 5 years?

Today's ECB decision will be the five-year anniversary of Draghi's defining speech and it would be a perfect opportunity for him to write a new chapter “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro....

Who needs more investment?

Relative to equities, commodities are trading cheapest in many decades. This divergence is there despite the fact that a large proportion of traders are betting on a global reflation trade since past six months at least.   The primary...

Literature over history

The latest OECD Economic Outlook forecast succinctly summarizes the "New Normal" in just one paragraph, as follows: "The mood in the global economy has brightened during the last year. Confidence indicators, industrial production, headline...

The Gujarat ​HC ruled that ​RBI had the right to instruct banks on steps to be taken for resolution of stressed assets. And dismissed Essar Steel's plea against the central bank's decision to recommend bankruptcy proceedings.  Essar Steel is...

The second factor is the cost of printing new notes to compensate for the banned 500- and 1,000-rupee notes. As per the central bank's latest annual report, it spent 34.2 bln rupees to print 21.2 bln pieces of notes worth 3.8 trln rupees in...

Maintain proportion

The unconventional monetary policies followed in past one decade have brought about a paradigm shift in global financial markets. The new conditions, popularly known as "New Normal", indicate that there is broader consensus on lower economic...

USD Damage continues

Every currency has a bad day at times. Even in the less-volatile era of 2017, currencies are beaten up. When those days come – like they did for the US dollar on Friday – how the currency recovers is often more telling then the bad day...

For several years now, the government could safely count on the transfer of a hefty surplus from the RBI for a slice of its revenue. And thanks to the surprise demonetisation of high-value currency notes in November, many had initially expected the...

Nifty: Time to make your own call

For past two years, we have been anticipating the current bull market cycle that started from August 2013 to pause around 10300 Nifty spot level, correct materially before surging to eventual target of 13400.   Few weeks ago we lowered our...

A decade and counting

Exactly a decade ago, during the second week of July 2007, S&P downgraded US$7.3 billion of securities sold in 2005 and 2006. A few weeks later, Moody’s Investor Service slashes ratings on 691 securities from 2006, originally worth US$19.4...

Set the priorities right - 2

Our colleagues recently visited the flood affected areas of Assam. The misery of people there can't be described in words. Especially when it is a predictable and recurrent phenomenon. The apathy of administration and policy makers is...

Back to School - 3

In our view, the first and foremost reform that India needs is a complete overhaul of the education system. We have the following solutions to offer, with a caveat.   Caveat: We have discussed this issue with a number of people from...

Set the priorities right

A large part of the population in Eastern and North Eastern parts of India suffers from floods almost every year. Millions of people suffer tremendous hardship every year due to inundation of their houses and fields.   For many of these...

Come aboard the hike train

A Bank of Canada rate hike wasn't even on the radar a month ago but on Wednesday the BoC joined the Fed and is the second major central bank to hike rates. What's more, as we anticipated, it was a hawkish hike and it sent the...

Back to schools - 2

A few weeks back, results of class XII CBSE examinations were declared. There were many students who earned almost perfect score in subjects like Political Science, History, English, Psychology. Our HRD minister was quick in calling and...

Inflated liquidity surplus has been the norm in the banking system since November, when the government withdrew high denomination currency notes from circulation. However, it is only now that the RBI has decided to sell bonds under open market...

Bunds Breakout

Bund yields rose 9 basis points on Thursday as borrowing costs jumped across the eurozone. The rise to 0.56% in German benchmark 10s continues a climb that started from 0.26% on June 27 when Draghi alluded to temporary factors holding...

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