Categories : Blog (249)

  What is the significance of the price action following Yellen's comments last Friday afternoon? The US dollar reversed lower, snapping streaks against euro, yen, and sterling.  US interest rates eased.  Did Yellen...

The GDP growth numbers for Oct-Dec have revived the controversy over the new series--are the numbers inflated?Comparisons are already being drawn with China, whose growth statistics have forced economists and analysts to suspend their...

  Nifty failed in its latest attempt to scale the Mount 9k, and stepped back a little.    There is however little indication available as yet that the mission has been aborted. In our view, Nifty may continue to make...

Markets not in equilibrium

  In our view, a combination of following six factors determines the movement of stock markets, under any given circumstance.   1.    Macro outlook   2.    Earnings outlook   3....

The solid Oct-Dec GDP growth numbers have defied expectations. However, in trying to explain the unexpectedly high growth rate of 7.0% in the last quarter of 2016, many economists are raising interesting questions.  Chief...

Is it TINA alone?

  A deeper analysis of the current behavior of Indian stock market would need to examine at least two factors:   (a)   How much is the role of TINA (There Is No Alternative) in the rise in inflows into the Indian...

This time it's different

  Our recent interactions with investors and businesspersons have convinced us that the current market up move is distinct in some sense.   Historically, most bull markets have been driven by high hopes and fueled by greed of...

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting on Feb 7-8 have provided valuable insight into how much room for further easing the members see. And, it is possible that further room doesn't emerge at all.   The shift in...

Beware the Ides of March

  T.S. Eliot tells us that April is the cruelest month. A great poet he was, but a trader he was not. Consider the congestion of events around March 15.   A few days before, March 9 is ECB...

Stocks on Fire, BOC Holds

  A hawkish Fed and soaring stocks are destined for a showdown but it wasn't Wednesday as the S&P 500 had its best day of the year, yields jumped and yen crosses climbed. The Bank of Canada held rates as...

The RBI's MPC ensured on Feb 8 that the stubborn nature of core retail inflation was taken more seriously than ever after it announced a change in its stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'.   But what core inflation was the committee...

A visit down memory lane of markets

Global equity markets have been largely buoyant for past five months. They look distinctly tired now.   There are more words of caution than encouragement for traders and investors alike. To the trend followers this hint of fear is the only...

Monday was another day of confused trading as the dollar was hit by soft data and a slowdown on Trump's tax plan but rallied late anyway.   The headline didn't tell the story on US January durable goods orders. They rose 1.8% in the...

Too much Complacency?

The last-minute rally in stocks on Friday led to an 11th consecutive record high in the DJIA in a market that's flashing too many warning signs to ignore. The pound is lower to start the week on talk of a fresh Scottish...

Many national newspapers prominently reported yesterday that local sweet and snacks maker Haldiram’s revenues crossed Rs 4,000 crore in FY16. The Indian snack major is now twice the size of Hindustan Unilever's packaged food division or...

Core retail inflation isn't just sticky anymore; it is rising. After having flitted between 4.9% and 5.0% in the last four months of 2016, CPI-based inflation excluding food and fuel rose to 5.1% in January.   A 10-basis-point rise in an...

Set the priorities right

Last evening a visit to the local garbage dump site was a revelation in many sense. A casual discussion with the rag pickers gleaning the household garbage to pick pieces of paper, plastic and metal, was quite enlightening.   Out of seven...

Dollar pulls back

The general arc of an improving economy is that sentiment surveys improve first. That's followed by hard data but not always. Sometimes economic confidence fades and the expected growth pickup never materializes. The US dollar rallied along with...

Coffee Conversations - 7

We met with MD & CEO of Bharti AXA life insurance, Mr. Sandeep Ghosh to discuss the impact of demonetisation on sales and understanding the prospects of insurance space. Below are the edited excerpts of his interview with us:   Ques:...

Many readers have found the technical analysis of the market, published earlier this week, ambiguous. Some readers have found the outlook outright bearish, suggesting an imminent and major correction in the market. The others see us unnecessarily...

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