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For past two years, we have been anticipating the current bull market cycle that started from August 2013 to pause around 10300 Nifty spot level, correct materially before surging to eventual target of 13400.
 
Few weeks ago we lowered our intermediate target to 9850-9910 range, based on our technical model.
 
Though it's a season of admitting "mistakes" to flow with the market, we would still stick to our original assessment.
 
In our assessment Nifty has already made an intermediate top at 9913 level. Though, in momentum, it may rise another 1-1.5%, it is highly likely (almost 100% probability) that Nifty would complete a normal bull market correction of over 10% (potentially 12-17%) in next 6months.
 
For those who watch conventional technical indicators, the following points may be noteworthy:
 
(a)   Nifty daily and weekly RSI is more than 75, an overbought condition not seen since 2014.
 
(b)   Nifty Williams % R indicator is below 5 for weekly and daily data, again a strong overbought indicator.
 
(c)    Nifty spot value is 9.7% higher from its 200EDMA. A divergence of 10% is considered totally unsustainable.
 
(d)   Nifty has breached its long term trend line resistance last week. Previously such breach occurred in March 2015, leading to a full 22% correction in Nifty.
 
The trade for the regulars, in our view, continues to be Sell on Rise. The fearful though may want to sit on the fringes and wait for some more clarity to emerge.
Silkrose Fiscal Serviecs LLP & Adroit Research Team 
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Disclaimer: SilkRose Fiscal Services LLP (SFSL) is NOT registered with SEBI as Advisor. The updates are purely a view point / public domain news and there is no assurity on the returns. Hence all the members are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations by the company. SFSL is not responsible of any losses incurred (if any) by acting on the updates. All news shared by SFSL is meant for free view and the company does not earn revenues from sharing any public domain information.